Coffee’s Next Big Problem May Not Be the Earthquake — It Could Be El Niño

August 24, 2026 | Brew Club Buzz

The coffee industry entered the final weekend of August with a new concern moving to the center of the conversation: El Niño.

While the recent earthquake in Colombia generated fears about another disruption to the global coffee supply, new information from Colombia's coffee industry suggests the earthquake itself may not be the major threat to production.

Instead, growers are increasingly watching the weather.

Colombia Says the Earthquake Didn't Destroy the Coffee Crop

Colombia's National Federation of Coffee Growers said Friday that the country's recent 7.4-magnitude earthquake caused significant damage to homes and infrastructure in coffee-growing communities, but coffee production itself was largely spared.

Around 10,500 coffee-growing families were displaced, with approximately 8,000 reporting damage to their homes or coffee-processing facilities. However, the country's coffee exports through Buenaventura, which handles roughly 60% of Colombia's coffee shipments, continued operating.

That changes the story from what many initially feared.

The earthquake may have created serious problems for individual farmers and communities, but it does not currently appear to have created the massive supply-chain shock that could have sent global coffee prices sharply higher.

Now Farmers Are Watching El Niño

The bigger concern is developing thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean.

Reuters reported last week that forecasters see more than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing during the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter. The weather pattern can dramatically alter rainfall and temperatures across major coffee-producing regions.

For coffee, the consequences could be significant.

Vietnam and Indonesia—two of the world's major Robusta producers—could face hotter and drier conditions. Brazil's Arabica crop could see different effects depending on the timing and location of rainfall, while Colombia is already expecting a smaller harvest.

Colombia's coffee federation now expects approximately 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags this year, down about 8% from 13.7 million bags in 2025. The federation attributes the expected decline to earlier heavy rains and the emerging El Niño threat rather than the earthquake itself.

Coffee Prices Actually Fell on Friday

Here's where the story gets interesting.

Despite the growing weather concerns, coffee prices fell sharply on Friday.

December Arabica futures dropped about 2.02%, while September Robusta futures declined approximately 2.81%. Expectations that drier conditions could accelerate Brazil's harvest put downward pressure on prices.

Benchmark coffee prices finished Friday around 322.65 cents per pound, down 2.02% from the previous session.

So the coffee market is currently caught between two competing forces:

Brazil's harvest could increase available supply and push prices lower.

El Niño could threaten future production and push prices higher.

That tension could make the next several months particularly volatile.

Why This Matters to Coffee Drinkers

The important point isn't necessarily that coffee prices are about to explode again.

It's that the market has become extremely sensitive to weather forecasts and crop conditions.

A strong Brazilian harvest could provide some relief. But if El Niño causes meaningful production losses in Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia or Brazil, that relief could disappear quickly.

For roasters, cafés and consumers, that creates another layer of uncertainty when planning purchases and pricing products.

And while futures markets can move immediately, consumers typically don't see those changes at the same speed. Coffee purchased by a roaster may have been contracted weeks or months earlier, meaning today's market movement doesn't automatically translate into tomorrow's retail price.

The Bottom Line

The earthquake that initially threatened Colombia's coffee supply appears to have turned into a much more contained problem for global production.

Now, the industry has its eyes on something much larger.

El Niño could become the next major test for the global coffee supply.

For now, Brazil's harvest is providing some bearish pressure on prices. But if weather conditions begin damaging crops across multiple producing countries, the market could quickly look very different.

The coffee industry may have avoided one supply shock.

Now it's waiting to see what the weather brings.

Sources: Reuters, Trading Economics, Barchart.